Forgive Us Our Debts
Europe runs out of money.
Nov 7, 2011, Vol. 17, No. 08 • By CHRISTOPHER CALDWELL
Working up an austerity plan for the Italians was a top priority at last week’s summit. Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition partners have resisted it, and in one sense they are right to see the demand as unfair—at about 4 percent, Italy’s budget deficits are low by comparison to the rest of the European Union (and far lower than the United States). And there is one boast that Italians can make that few other countries can—its finances are roughly in the same shape they were a decade ago. Under Berlusconi, Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti was a highly capable economic steward. His reputation in Italy has something in common with that of Paul Volcker in the United States. What spooked bond markets over the summer was Berlusconi’s quarreling with Tremonti, not the “bunga-bunga” (to use his term) that he indulged in with young women.
At last week’s meetings, Europe invited a new player into its finance crisis: China. Europeans have talked about “levering up” their $625 billion European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), established last year to prevent a Greek contagion. It has been topped up and tapped into since and now has only about half its original lending power. In order to obtain the funds necessary to shore up Italy’s bond market, the Europeans reckon they need to more than double the size of the EFSF. Levering up means using the money they have in the EFSF as security to raise even more on the capital markets. In the present depressed state of the world economy, “the capital markets” means China. With an astonishing lack of sangfroid, Klaus Regeling, the head of the EFSF, landed in Beijing on Thursday afternoon to press his case. He must have headed straight for the airport the moment the agreement was signed.
Years ago, China might have fallen for the trick that Europe intends to pull, basically trying to get money for Greece and Italy by waving around the triple-A credit rating of Germany and other countries that have stocked the EFSF. But today it is likely that China will insist on guarantees that it be paid before European taxpayers in any default scenario. In an interview with the Financial Times the day after the agreement, Li Daokui, a member of the central bank monetary policy committee, gave evidence of a real canniness. “The last thing China wants,” he said, “is to throw away the country’s wealth and be seen as just a source of dumb money.” Li indicated that the Chinese might ask European leaders to refrain from criticizing Chinese economic policy as part of the deal.
Perhaps Europe has reached the point where its only route out of bankruptcy is this kind of vassalage. To escape a debt crisis, an economy needs to be capable of growing. It is far from clear that Europe can do that. It has two problems. One is technological. Much of Europe lacks the technological wherewithal to claim an ever-increasing share of the world economy. Spain, for instance, during its long, construction-based boom, developed a good deal of national expertise in . . . what? Pouring concrete?
A second problem is demographic. Italians have one of the lowest birthrates known in any society since the dawn of time; what it will look like in 40 years is anybody’s guess, but one fairly conservative demographic projection shows its population decreasing by 10 percent, to 54 million, at midcentury. Debt, alas, is contracted on a per-country, not a per capita basis, and this kind of population loss (especially when accompanied by rapid aging) can render debt impossible to pay down.
Europe’s leaders are welcome to congratulate each other on finally resolving their debt crisis. They will likely have many more opportunities to come up with such “final resolutions” in the months and years ahead.
Christopher Caldwell is a senior editor at The Weekly Standard.