"In a conversation with this reporter in October 2001, Gen. Gul forecast a future [Pakistani] Islamist nuclear power that would form a greater Islamic state with a fundamentalist Saudi Arabia after the monarchy falls."
--Arnaud de Borchgrave, August 2004
THERE REMAINS an inversion of public discourse and policy direction with regard to two of the most significant threats we face. In particular, the most pressing nuclear threat is widely perceived to be from Iran while the more imminent terrorist threat is believed to be found in Pakistan. While both threats remain very real, few seem to understand that the most imminent nuclear threat is posed by Pakistan--the only current nuclear power considerably within reach of becoming an Islamist-run state aligned with al Qaeda, the Taliban, or other Islamists. Conversely, Iran's still-developing nuclear weapons program deceptively overshadows the significant state-sponsored international terrorism emanating from Tehran. This, while Pakistan's increasingly embattled--and internally challenged--President Pervez Musharraf stands as the primary buffer between Islamist forces of the ISI, the Taliban, and al Qaeda taking ownership of Pakistan's significant nuclear arsenal of 30 to 50 warheads.
Iran has a nearly 30-year track record of state-sponsorship of terrorism, complete with funded, supplied, and supported acts of terror and terrorists--Shia and Sunni alike--throughout the region and the world. Yet, though it has produced neither weapons-grade fissile material nor a viable nuclear weapon, Iran is considered by many the world's most urgent nuclear threat, rather than being addressed as the international terror sponsor that it is.
Likewise, with the presence of expanding safe-havens for the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other aligned terrorist organizations, Pakistan is primarily considered a state from which terrorists can prepare and launch future terror attacks. Pakistan certainly has elements which pose a threat of future (and current) acts of terror. However, the unsettling potential convergence of Pervez Musharraf and an assassin's bullet or bomb is all that separates a developed nuclear arsenal from these developed international terrorist networks. Should this happen to a steadily weakening Musharraf, it could give rise to the envisioned Islamist-run power in place of the current Islamic State of Pakistan, perhaps led by former ISI chief and Osama bin Laden friend, Hamid Gul.
While the terrorist threat from within Pakistan is real and present--more real and present than any nuclear threat from present day Iran--it pales in comparison to the nature of the imminent threat Pakistan's nuclear arsenal poses, with its positive control in increasing doubt.
Troubling Developments: Musharraf Cedes His Enemies' Gains
IT WAS RECENTLY REVEALED that a Bajour peace deal is imminent, modeled after the Miramshah Agreement that effectively handed the neighboring Pakistani territory of FATA's North Waziristan agency over to the Taliban. This same Bajour agreement was derailed last year by a strike on a Bajour madrassa, reportedly carried out by the Pakistani military.
Demonstrating his open alignment with the Islamists within Pakistan, Hamid Gul has effectively brought suit against the Pakistani government, seeking the protection of Bajour tribal citizens against attacks from Coalition and Pakistani troops. In the suit, which was received well by the Supreme Court judges, Gul reportedly argued that "many tribal citizens (in the Bajour Agency) are being killed daily, due to firing of Allied troops and Pakistani security forces, which was a blatant violation of article 9 of the constitution." Gul asserts that Pakistani forces must be blocked from the pursuit of the Taliban, al Qaeda, or anyone aiding these groups.
Outside the Supreme Court, counterterrorism justices in Pakistan receive harsh treatment and are under threat of attack from Pakistani Islamists. One judge who primarily hears terrorism cases survived a suicide bombing attack on March 1st in the central Pakistani city of Multan. The judge was injured but survived; three Pakistani police officers providing his security were reportedly killed.
