Jay Cost
Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard and the author of A Republic No More: Big Government and the Rise of American Political Corruption.
Stories by Jay Cost
Trump Is Facing an Electoral College Wipeout
According to the current polls.
7:46 AM, Aug 15, 2016
The national polls paint a grim portrait for the Donald Trump campaign. The current Real Clear Politics average of the two-way polls shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 6.8 percent lead. While there is still plenty of time left in the campaign, it is difficult to overcome such a large deficit after the parties have already held their conventions. This problem is worsened by the fact that the undisciplined Trump seems to lack the wherewithal to right his wobbly ship. In 2012, Mitt Romney ran Read more
Carly Could Turn Around the RNC
The ex-HP CEO would have to focus on reforming the party's rules.
8:50 AM, Aug 12, 2016
Who's in the mood for some good news ? Former HP CEO and 2016 presidential contender Carly Fiorina is actively laying the groundwork for a bid to be the next chair of the Republican National Committee, according to state GOP officials who have followed her plans. Fiorina and her aides have plotted an aggressive season of travel this fall to states with and without close Republicans races as she looks to help down-ballot Republicans, but people familiar with the plans said she is also looking to Read more
Donald Trump Has A Republican Problem
Trump is still underperforming with regular GOP voters.
1:44 PM, Aug 08, 2016
This weekend's ABC News/ Washington Post poll was very bad news for the Donald Trump campaign. Not only did it have Hillary Clinton with a comfortable, 50-42, lead over Trump in the head-to-head matchup, it provided more evidence that the Clinton campaign has done a better job corralling the core Democratic groups than the Trump team has done with core Republican groups. The ABC/ WaPo poll offers extensive breakdowns of vote preferences by demographic group, which can be compared to the 2012 pre Read more
Polls Show the Trump-Era GOP Is Dangerously Fractured
While Democrats are relatively united.
11:04 AM, Aug 04, 2016
A spate of polls taken over the weekend show Hillary Clinton enjoying a healthy bounce coming out of the Democratic National Convention. This is to be expected. What is unusual is that the Democratic party is substantially more unified than the Republican party. Indeed, the GOP electorate looks to be dangerously fractured. Since the DNC, three live-operator, major media polls have been conducted—by CBS, CNN, and Fox News. On average, they show Clinton leading Donald Trump in a two-way race by ei Read more
Here Comes Hillary
And she's got all her baggage with her, too.
Aug 08, 2016
Hillary Clinton officially secured the Democratic party’s nomination for president last week, placing her one step closer to the job she has been doggedly pursuing for almost 20 years. With the exception of Donald Trump, no major-party nominee has ever been so unpopular with the broader public. The two are viewed unfavorably by an overwhelming majority of their fellow citizens. Clinton's flaws are manifest, from corruption to the lying to an utter lack of charm. But she counters them with organi Read more
Trump's Dump
Atlantic City's Taj Mahal and the Republican party.
8:00 AM, Jul 29, 2016
Have you ever stayed at a hotel that was so dingy, dirty, and broken down that, when you returned home, you felt like you just had to take a shower? I did—last weekend, in fact. And this one bears the name of the GOP's nominee for president of the United States of America. In celebration of my brother's coming nuptials, I took him to Atlantic City to see Buddy Guy and Jeff Beck (who were great) as well as Huey Lewis and the News (also great). Though both shows were at the Borgata, rooms at the T Read more
Ted Cruz, Ted Kennedy, and 'The Dream Will Never Die'
The conservative firebrand echoes the liberal lion.
5:53 PM, Jul 21, 2016
Ted Cruz's speech Wednesday night was an impressive endorsement of conservatism, the Constitution, and liberty—and an equally impressive non-endorsement of Donald Trump. It was, in other words, a conservative version of Ted Kennedy's "Dream Will Never Die" speech, given at the 1980 Democratic convention. The background of that fight is similar to the 2016 GOP battle. Jimmy Carter and Kennedy fought a bruising primary battle, which was not merely a clash of personalities but of principles. Kenned Read more
It Might Be Time To Bolt the GOP
Has the party outlived its usefulness?
11:45 AM, Jul 17, 2016
Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, has published a predictive model of presidential elections for decades. Through three simple factors—economic growth, presidential job approval, and tenure of the incumbent party—Abramowitz explains most of the variation in presidential elections. This time around, his model points to a narrow Republican victory, but he does not believe this result —because the GOP has gotten behind Donald Trump, which "violates a basic assumption of the Read more
The RNC Delegates are Legally Free to Vote Their Consciences
The party rules are very clear.
3:52 PM, Jul 13, 2016
In my last essay , I made the moral case for why the delegates to the Republican convention in Cleveland should feel free to reject Donald Trump as the GOP nominee. Their function is not to reflexively obey the 45 percent of primary voters who supported Trump, sacrificing their best judgment for the sake of a plurality victor. If they think Trump is bad for the party, they are not morally obliged to back him. But do the rules of the convention legally require them to vote for Trump? The executiv Read more
The RNC Delegates Are Morally Free to Vote Their Consciences
Lessons from Madison and Burke.
3:18 PM, Jul 12, 2016
The Trump campaign and the leadership of the Republican National Committee are working hard to pressure delegates to vote for Trump. The race is over, they say. The voters have rendered their judgment. Delegates do not have the right to nullify this verdict. Now is the time to rally around Trump and unify the party. Trump and the RNC leadership are wrong. The delegates should feel free to vote their consciences, and the rules and history of the Republican National Convention support their right Read more
With Trump, the GOP Is Heading Toward Oblivion
The odds aren't good for the Republican party.
12:39 PM, Jun 27, 2016
Over the weekend, the New York Times reported on the Republican National Committee's efforts to squelch the "Dump Trump" movement among delegates. The article ended with this ominous line: Peter Feaman, who will serve on the convention rules committee and has a long history with the party, including serving as Florida's party chairman, called the talk of ditching Mr. Trump "a lot of sound and fury." "We're going to ride the Trump bandwagon into 1600 Penn Ave., or into oblivion," he added. "One o Read more
Who Speaks for the Party?
The novel problem of a presidential nominee who can't make a cogent argument.
Jul 04, 2016
Our Constitution distributes power broadly across three branches of government, and the federal, state, and local levels. Yet during presidential campaigns, candidates for offices across the country unite behind their party’s presidential nominee. This person becomes the representative of the entire coalition, and it is his or her responsibility to explain to voters what the party stands for. Hillary Clinton may have many limitations as a candidate, but there's no doubt she's an able messenger f Read more
It's Time to Dump Trump
At the Republican National Convention
12:05 PM, Jun 15, 2016
Donald Trump is on course to be routed at the ballot box in November. He trails Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the latest Bloomberg News national poll, and has only led her in four polls out of thirty three since April, according to Real Clear Politics. A new ABC News/ Washington Post poll finds that his favorable rating has dropped to a paltry 31 percent among registered voters, with 69 percent viewing him unfavorably. This is hardly surprising, given that he continues to make outrageous comme Read more
Anyone? Anyone? Smoot-Hawley?
Trump, tariffs, and the triumph of the fat cats.
Jun 20, 2016
"I'm going to be your champion," Donald Trump declared after he won the California primary last week. "I'm going to be America's champion. Because, you see, this election isn't about Republican or Democrat. It's about who runs this country, the special interests or the people—and I mean the American people." To take the country back from the special interests, Trump promises to impose a tariff on foreign goods, especially those made in China, on which he threatens to levy a tax of up to 45 perce Read more
An Open Letter to Mitt Romney
7:46 PM, Jun 07, 2016
Dear Governor Romney, I write to you not as a fellow conservative, not as a fellow partisan, but as a citizen of our republic. You have served your nation admirably for many years and by any ordinary standard are entitled to a happy retirement. But these are extraordinary times, and your nation still has need of your service. I respectfully implore you to run for president as an independent candidate in 2016. America is not bound by a shared nationality, religion, or even geography, but a commit Read more
The Man in the Arena
Who will stand up to Trump?
Jun 06, 2016
Since he began his campaign, Donald Trump has been defying the conventional norms of politics. Many smart people thought he would not enter the race at all, for fear he would have to reveal he wasn’t as wealthy as he claimed. Instead, Trump eagerly joined the battle and declared a net worth that left financial experts incredulous. Indeed, Trump has knocked down one political convention after another, and thrived. He insulted John McCain for being a POW in Vietnam—nothing happened. He claimed Geo Read more
The Insider
Trump's success is less populist than you think.
May 30, 2016
Now that Donald Trump is the Republican party’s presumptive nominee, there is pressure on conservatives to support him. The people have rendered their verdict, and elitist Republicans should respect the will of the voters, or so goes the much-repeated refrain. But have the people really spoken? Trump is hardly the consensus candidate of the Republican everyman. In fact, his victory is as much a product of elitism as anything: Cable and broadcast news showered unprecedented coverage on him, and t Read more
From Success to Success
It was a banner night for the GOP.
Nov 17, 2014
The 2014 midterm elections were a referendum on Barack Obama’s performance as president. He has done a bad job, and most Americans know it. Accordingly, the American people used the only means they had of making good their disapproval: They elected Republicans. The president’s standing in the states with major Senate battles was uniformly terrible. The media conducted exit polls for 10 of the 11 Senate races where the GOP won or nearly won Democratic-held seats. Obama’s job approval ranged from Read more
The Lessons of 1912
Sometimes you have to split from a party to save it.
May 23, 2016
With Donald Trump the presumptive nominee of the Republican party, conservatives face their biggest crisis in generations. Professional Republicans are mostly boarding the “Trump Train," convinced their self-interest requires party unity, but principled conservatives find the choice between the dissolute, erratic Trump and the liberal, corrupt Clinton unacceptable. What comes next for them? This insurgency should field a candidate for the White House in 2016, which would require a leader to offe Read more
Republican Party Down
Trump and the decaying GOP.
May 09, 2016
As the Trump campaign steamrolls ahead, most of us are still scratching our heads. How could this have happened? The usual answer focuses on the grievances of the Trump voter: economic anxiety, frustration with the status quo in politics, the desire to see somebody “tell it like it is," and so on. But that's only part of the story. While it is important to appreciate the frustrations of those at the base of the party pyramid, we should not overlook problems nearer the top of the party architectu Read more
Correcting the Record on Andrew Jackson
2:39 PM, Apr 26, 2016
Writing in the Washington Post , former senator Jim Webb laments the announcement that Andrew Jackson will be taken off the $20 bill, and heaps unwarranted praise upon America's seventh president. Webb writes: As president, Jackson ordered the removal of Indian tribes east of the Mississippi to lands west of the river. This approach, supported by a string of presidents, including Jefferson and John Quincy Adams, was a disaster, resulting in the Trail of Tears where thousands died. But was its mo Read more
Fear Not a Brokered Convention
It's how the system sometimes works.
Apr 18, 2016
With Ted Cruz’s victory in last week's Wisconsin primary, the odds are rising that the Republican party will have a "contested" or "brokered" convention in Cleveland this summer. That presents a host of questions, not only about how such a process would work but whether it would be legitimate. Party conventions seem to be like an appendix on the body politic, a vestigial institution that we have little use for. But the convention was once a democratic reform. The first one was held in 1831 by th Read more
Conventional Wisdom
Is Cruz stealing delegates from Trump?
Apr 25, 2016
After Ted Cruz won every delegate up for grabs at the Colorado Republican convention, Donald Trump began complaining that the process at such conventions is unfair. His claim is that party insiders should not be making these choices, but rather that the power should be vested with the voters. As a consequence, Cruz is “stealing" delegates from Trump, and in so doing defying the will of the voters. Trump's accusations are specious and disingenuous. The process that has been playing out is perfect Read more
End of the Age of Obama
Nov 10, 2014
The end of the Age of Obama. It began with high hopes on a winter’s night in Iowa in 2008 and ended in disappointment on a crisp fall day nearly seven years later. Sure, the president has another two years in office, but he is now the lamest of lame ducks. He is soon to face a House majority that is one of the most Republican since the 1920s, and a Senate, we hope, about to be taken over by a Republican majority. But more than this, he seems to have no friends, and few allies, on Capitol Hill. O Read more
The Race for Republican Delegates: Where Do We Stand?
5:30 AM, Mar 07, 2016
According to Nate Silver , the current delegate count for the Republican nomination is: Trump 391 delegates (43 percent of total) Cruz 304 (34 percent) Rubio 148 (16 percent) Kasich 37 (4 percent) Unbound/Other Candidate 26 (3 percent) This is an accurate account of the contests so far. But one could add the fact that a solid number of delegates will be going to the Cleveland convention unbound. In particular North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa will send all of their delegates unbound to Clev Read more
The Outlook for Super Tuesday
9:15 AM, Feb 26, 2016
With Super Tuesday just days away, Donald Trump is set to win a large number of contests. However, the delegate math means it is unlikely he will walk away with so many delegates as to make him unstoppable. Unlike South Carolina, which allocated its delegates by a winner-take-all system, Super Tuesday states have variations of proportional allocation systems. Some are strictly proportional—Virginia and Massachusetts, for instance—while most states have what is commonly called "winner take most." Read more
Polling Since the South Carolina Debate
2:46 PM, Feb 18, 2016
Donald Trump looks to be cruising to a solid victory in the South Carolina primary, but there is evidence that his debate performance might have hurt him—at least on the margins. Seven pollsters* have conducted surveys that were in the field mostly after the debate, and the average result is: Trump: 33 Cruz: 18 Rubio: 17 Kasich: 10 Bush: 10 Carson: 7 Compare that to the five polls that were conducted after the New Hampshire primary, but mostly before the debate: Trump: 38 Cruz: 19 Rubio: 15 Bush Read more
Why Can't Kasich Win?
10:29 PM, Feb 09, 2016
Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary, but his coalition in New Hampshire does not appear much larger than what Pat Buchanan garnered in 1992 or 1996. He is pulling in the same basic coalition, which had a ceiling of about 30 percent nationwide. John Kasich’s second place finish is much more interesting to me. Kasich hit the upside surprise in New Hampshire tonight. The polls had him finishing in third, but as of this writing he is solidly in second place with 16 percent of the vote. Does h Read more
Jeb Bush's Terrible Campaign Finance Idea
1:29 PM, Feb 09, 2016
At a country club (of all places!) in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Monday, Jeb Bush articulated what might be the worst idea for campaign finance reform I have ever heard. John McCormack has the details : "The ideal thing--situation--would be to overturn the Supreme Court ruling that allows for effectively unregulated money independent and regulated money for the campaign. I would turn that on its head if I could," Bush said. "The key is just to have total transparency about the amounts of money an Read more
It's the Incentives, Stupid
How to get a better political establishment.
12:31 PM, Feb 08, 2016
The political “establishment" has become a kind of four-letter word, a catchall derogation of those who maintain the status quo in Washington. Alas, this phrase has come to confuse more than clarify. A political establishment has always existed. That's because it is quite necessary to have one. Even in the earliest years of our history, most political leaders were either military commanders (Washington, Jackson) or full-time politicians (Jefferson, Adams). Indeed, it is probably better now that Read more
