IN THE MIDST OF AN eight-day trip through Europe designed to assuage fears that his country is sliding toward chaos, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has reaffirmed that parliamentary elections will be held on February 18. Though the last year has certainly shown us that events in Pakistan are always subject to change, the election date should be considered about as stable as anything in Pakistan's political scene. With less than a month before these elections, it is a good time to assess the influence that Benazir Bhutto's assassination will have.
Even when Bhutto returned to Pakistan in October, "reform" (whatever that means in the context of Pakistan) was likely a pipe dream--but analysts thought a power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf could bolster his increasingly unpopular administration and perhaps even lend some legitimacy to military action against the terrorist safe havens in the tribal areas. Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) continues to be a critical force because although it is not the country's only secular opposition party (the MQM and Awami National Party are still active), it is the only party of the type with true national reach. Unfortunately, the new PPP leadership faces internal conflicts and is unlikely to parlay public grief over Bhutto's death into positive political change.
THE PPP IS NOW HEADED by what the L.A. Times has described as "a notoriously corrupt husband and a sheltered 19-year-old son." The role that Bhutto's son, Bilawal Zardari, will play in the PPP was announced at a chaotic press conference just three days after her death. There, Bhutto's husband Asif Ali Zardari claimed that her will put him in charge of the PPP--but that "he had decided, with the consent of the executive committee, . . . to pass the baton to his son." Bilawal actually comported himself well enough during that initial press conference, his first real taste of the limelight. He even managed to get off a memorable (albeit completely meaningless) quip: "My mother always said democracy is the best revenge."
Little is known about Bilawal--so little that journalists desperate for insight into his personality raced to a false Facebook page for information. Born in Pakistan but raised mainly in Dubai and London, he studies history at Oxford University's Christ Church College, his mother's alma mater. His most notable accomplishments have come in youth athletics. A recent profile in the Hindu notes that Bilawal "is described as a fitness freak and a keen sports enthusiast. He is a black belt in Taekwondo and also loves swimming, horse riding, squash and target shooting." His public interviews have been rare; when he spoke to a Pakistani newspaper about three years ago, he voiced his regret that circumstances would not permit him to play cricket.
Bilawal's only previous political experience was serving as the vice president of the student council at the Rashid School for Boys in Dubai back in 2005. Further disadvantaging Bilawal, he reportedly cannot speak Urdu and is considered out of touch with life in Pakistan.
"He is just a young teenager," Pramit Chaudhuri, associate editor of the Hindustan Times, told us. "He grew up in Dubai and London and has virtually no experience in Pakistan. His mother kept him under tight wraps." A senior U.S. intelligence source concurred, telling us, "Bilawal is a 19-year-old kid. Like many 19-year-olds his political philosophy is still developing."
Under Pakistan's constitution, the head of a party needs to be eligible to run for parliament. Bilawal is too young (the minimum age is 25), but the fact that Asif Ali has been appointed the PPP's acting chairman and regent will probably insulate the party against legal challenges.
ASIF ALI ZARDARI NOW RUNS the PPP's day-to-day operations as the parliamentary elections approach. Like his son, Asif Ali seemingly has no definable political philosophy. Indeed, it appears that democracy truly is "the best revenge" for him, considering how he managed to line his own pockets during his wife's rule.
