A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended after it had barely begun Friday morning when the terrorist organization committed a suicide attack that killed two Israeli soldiers and kidnapped a third. In a fact sheet sent to journalists, Omri Ceren of the Israel Project explains where the broken ceasefire leaves Israel and the region:
The kidnapping will trigger a cascade of diplomatic and geopolitical consequences. The Qataris were reportedly central to crafting the ceasefire, and may have promised to "deliver" Hamas in one sense or another. Their credibility will take a hit. The Egyptians were the official brokers of the ceasefire. They will be seething at Hamas, and diplomatic retribution is almost inevitable. And then there are the analysts who went all-in on Hamas being an actor who can be dealt with, some of whom were implying last night that Israel could have stopped the fighting sooner. They'll be called on to reevaluate.
But the immediate consequence is that the war is now set to go on for a long time. Gershon Baskin, who has been Israel's top negotiator on Hamas matters and was a key figure in the talks over kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, tweeted a few minutes ago that "Al Qassam just signed the death sentenced of many Hamas leaders. There will not be another Schalit deal."
The coverage over the next few days is likely to be straightfoward. The Israelis said very openly "we're really worried about ceasefires, because Hamas has used every single one of them to regroup and attack." The international community responded "continued fighting is unacceptable, and so there must be a ceasefire." The Israelis accepted a 72-hour truce. And here we are.