ARG Poll Shows Scott Brown Up 3

Once again, the margin of error is 4 percent, so his lead falls within it on this likely voter poll. But a slim lead for Brown is becoming less and less surprising by the day:

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 48% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy in a telephone survey conducted January 12-14 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19. 

Brown leads Coakley 94% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 58% to 37% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 71% to 20% among registered Democrats. A total of 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans remain undecided.

Coakley leads Brown among women (50-44) and older voters (47-46). Brown leads among men (54-39) and voters 18-49 (52-42!).

On InTrade, the betting has evened up, and Coakley and Brown are at 50-50.

Meanwhile, liberal MSNBC host advocates voter fraud on the air, and the closeness of the numbers makes people wonder whether Kennedy (the third-party libertarian candidate) might make the difference.