Mark Dubowitz and Orde Kittrie, writing for the Wall Street Journal:
The Geneva deal agreed to Sunday by six major powers with Iran is a gamble on Western optimism. While slightly rolling back Iranian nuclear capability, the agreement greatly weakens Western economic sanctions. Iranian sanctions-busters will be in position to exploit the changing market psychology and newly created pathways to reap billions of additional dollars in economic relief beyond those projected by the Obama administration. The Geneva deal's provisions are too weak to prevent Iranian physicists from making further nuclear progress in several key areas.
The interim agreement has glaring loopholes even as it addresses some areas of Iran's nuclear-weapons capacity. It includes several Iranian commitments that, if verifiably implemented, would extend Iran's nuclear breakout time from about a month to about two months, while making it easier to detect an Iranian breakout.
It places more constraints on Iran's nuclear program than was the case in the deal that the Obama administration reportedly was prepared to sign two weeks ago. The Senate's threat to pass additional sanctions, France's objections to the initial deal, and Israel's fierce resistance to the terms of the proposed agreement seem to have played a role in providing U.S. negotiators with leverage to extract a better deal from Iran.
Even with improvements, the interim agreement fails to bring Iran into compliance with its key international legal obligations as spelled out in United Nations Security Council resolutions. The agreement comes closest on compliance with the resolutions' requirement that Iran "suspend" work on "all heavy water-related projects" including "construction" of the Arak reactor. While the Geneva agreement commits Iran to refrain from the most significant activities at Arak, it does not preclude Iran from general construction work at the site. Iran will easily be able to restart or threaten to restart the more dangerous work at Arak when the six-month interim period ends.
Whole thing here.