Charlie Cook: Don't Fall for "Cheap Spin and Drive-By 'Analysis'" of NY-26
10:54 AM, May 18, 2011 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Charlie Cook on next week's special election in western New York:
Read the whole thing here. For a taste of the "cheap spin and drive-by 'analysis'" that Cook is talking about, see this Washington Post news story calling NY-26 a "referendum on the Republican plan to overhaul Medicare." Like Cook, Nate Silver at the New York Times has also cautioned against reading too much into the race.
The House GOP plan to reform Medicare may hurt Republicans a lot, a little, or not at all in 2012. Paul Ryan himself has said he doesn't know what the political consequences of his budget will be. He does know entitlement reform is necessary to avert a debt crisis.
But Cook is right. Given the peculiarities of the NY-26--a divided GOP that's tarnished by a congressman who resigned in disgrace--it would be foolish to call the race a bellwether or a referendum on Medicare reform.
(Hat tip: Dave Weigel)