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CQ Follows Rothenberg, Makes Mass. a 'Toss Up'

Winnable?

1:39 PM, Jan 15, 2010 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM
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Echoing Stuart Rothenberg's switch on the race, which cited Democratic "desperation" in part, CQ moves the Massachusetts senate race to the "toss-up" column today:

Massachusetts is a predominately Democratic state, and Democratic nominee Martha Coakley, the sitting state attorney general, started the race with built-in advantages that haven't produced the walkaway victory her party expected.

Political insiders have become increasingly convinced that the race is too close to call, and polling in the state has produced wildly disparate conclusions. On Thursday, one survey found Brown, a state senator, trailing by 8 points and another found him leading by 4 points.

What's clear from the analyzing the polling data as a whole is that the race has tightened to the point where it is not possible to say one candidate has a clear edge over the other.

Coakley maintains a structural advantage, but momentum and Coakley's copious gaffes are in Brown's favor, making the race too close to call, despite the heavy blue nature of the state and involvement by high-profile Democrats, like Bill Clinton.

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