Is Kucinich in trouble?
9:53 AM, Oct 18, 2010 • By WILLIAM KRISTOL
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the results of a private poll conducted last night in Ohio-10, the Cleveland-area district held for seven terms by Democrat Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich has been widely viewed as safe—even though he fell short of 60 percent of the vote in 2008, and the district has a Cook PVI of only Dem +8.
The poll (based on a small but respectable 319 person sample, with a margin of error of 5.6 percent, weighted to eliminate gender bias) shows Kucinich ahead of his opponent, Peter Corrigan, by only 4 percent. The profile of undecided voters suggests they may break for Corrigan by about 3-2. And Corrigan's 4 percent deficit turns into a 4 percent Corrigan lead when voters are given information on Kucinich's ties to corrupt local Democratic leaders, and on Kucinich's support for illegal immigration. These are signs that undecided voters could be pushed to go Corrigan’s way. Furthermore, Corrigan is running even with Kucinich among those who've already requested their absentee ballot, as early voting has already started in Ohio.
Corrigan is up on radio, but not on TV. He is doing direct mail to 150,000 households with persuadable voters. He has little cash on hand—but so does Kucinich (Kucinich had $88K to Corrigan's $35K at the end of the last filing period, and Kucinich outraised Corrigan in the 3rd quarter by only $30K).
Could be an interesting race for people to consider last minute contributions to—or even IE expenditures, perhaps focused on national security, where Kucinich’s militant hostility to American victory abroad, and to supporting the troops, is probably at odds with his blue-collar constituents.
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