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Expect the Unexpected

10:02 AM, Dec 19, 2013 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
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First time claims came in higher than expected. Which is very nearly a sure thing. Not that the number of claims will increase. Or decrease. Just that whatever they do, it will be “unexpected."

As Michelle Jamrisko of Bloomberg reports:

Jobless claims climbed by 10,000 to 379,000 in the period ended Dec. 14, the most since the end of March, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 336,000. It’s best to focus on the four-week average during the holiday season to determine the underlying trend, a government spokesman said as the figures were released.

If those economists were bookies ...

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