Gallup: GOP Has 13 to 18 Point Generic Ballot Lead Among Likely Voters
5:48 PM, Oct 4, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
The same day that Rasmussen shows Republicans leading Democrats by just three points on the generic ballot question among likely voters, Gallup's "first estimates among likely voters" in 2010 show the GOP up by double digits:
The numbers are pretty bad for Democrats, but two caveats:
One: Note that the Democrats do 5 points better with a higher turnout--a helpful data point that the Democrats may effectively turn into a talking point to persuade some members of their base to turn out on Election Day.
Two: "Gallup's historical election trends suggest that the race often tightens in the final month of the campaign."
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