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Gibbs: Yep, Dems Could Lose the House in November

You betcha.

10:30 AM, Jul 12, 2010 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM
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Political prognositcator Charlie Cook, who last week wrote that a GOP hurricane might be on its way, has been pegged as more bullish than most on the GOP's November chances.

But he was joined this week by a rather unlikely source. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told David Gregory on "Meet the Press:"

I think there's no doubt that there are a lot of seats that will be up, a lot of contested seats.  I think people are going to have a choice to make in the fall.  But I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control.  There's no doubt about that. This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats.

He goes on to bash Republicans in the style of White House talking points and the president's recent fund raisers. By that I mean, he says, "Remember Joe Barton!" and talks about that "ant" quote from Boehner. There you have it— the national Democratic strategy for November.

The Washington Post revealed last week what Gibbs' idea of "strong campaigns" will consist of— dirt:

"Some years you ride the wave, and other years you paddle your canoe," Democratic strategist Paul Begala said. "Democrats, they've got to paddle like hell. So what you do when you're paddling is, as the Republicans seek to nationalize, you localize and personalize."

Back to Cook:

In an attempt to ascertain who really is most likely to vote, pollsters asked registered voters, on a scale of 1 to 10, how interested they were in the November elections. Those who said either 9 or 10 added up to just over half of the registered voters, coming in at 51 percent.

Hart and McInturff then looked at the change among the most-interested voters from the same survey in 2008. Although 2010 is a "down-shifting" election, from a high-turnout presidential year to a lower-turnout midterm year, one group was more interested in November than it was in 2008: those who had voted for Republican John McCain for president. And the groups that showed the largest decline in interest? Those who voted for Barack Obama -- liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates, those living in either the Northeast or West, and younger voters 18 to 34 years of age. These are the "Holy Mackerel" numbers.

Jim Geraghty provides a flashback to February:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is literally laughing off the suggestion House Democrats could lose their majority in the midterm elections. In an interview with Roll Call Tuesday, the top House Democrat said her party would “definitely” retain control of the chamber and emerge from the November balloting with “much more than a simple majority.”

The downside of all this public glumness from Democrats is, of course, that if Republicans fail to capture the House, it will be read as a Democratic victory, pyrrhic as it may be.

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