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Gov't Predicts 'Active or Extremely Active' Hurricane Season This Year

1:44 PM, May 23, 2013 • By DANIEL HALPER
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration "predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season," according to a press release on the government agency's website. The other alternative being offered by NOAA is that this year's hurricane season will be "extremely active."

"For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)," the agency predicts.

"These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes."

There are 3 factors:

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation

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