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Inflecting?

2:30 PM, Feb 9, 2012 • By WILLIAM KRISTOL
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Yesterday I pointed out that "February 7 could prove to have been Super Tuesday if it turns out to be a key inflection point in the campaign."  Two indications, I wrote, of such an inflection point would be "if Santorum now passes Newt Gingrich in national Republican surveys" and if he "continues to do better than Gingrich (and than Romney?) in poll match-ups against President Obama."

Rick Santorum

Today, the Gallup national tracking poll of Republican voters has Santorum catching Gingrich at 20 percent apiece. This is a five-day rolling average. Some back-of-the-envelope math suggests that in Wednesday night's polling, the first that would have captured voter reaction to Tuesday night's results, Santorum must have been above 30 percent, pretty close to even with Romney (who is at 36 percent in the five-day), while Gingrich would have been below 20. In other words, Santorum is very likely to pull ahead of Gingrich nationally in tomorrow's Gallup poll.

And in the ur-swing state of Ohio, Rasmussen (in the field Wednesday) has Obama and Santorum tied at 44, while Romney trails Obama 45-41.

The next polls to watch for? How Romney and Santorum (and Gingrich) are doing in the states that will vote February 28, Arizona and especially Michigan.

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