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Let the Turn-Out Speculation Begin!

12:59 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM
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There's snow falling in parts of Massachusetts today.

Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin has predicted 40 percent turn-out today. Everyone is now trying to figure out whether higher turn-out is a result of successful last-ditch Dem GOTV or enthusiasm for Brown.

Uh-oh: "A Democratic operative familiar with Martha Coakley and the DSCC's massive get-out-the-vote operation says that outreach workers in and around Boston have been stunned by the number of Democrats and Obama supporters who are waving them off, saying they'll vote for Scott Brown."

Mike Barnicle on MSNBC: "I would strongly suspect that the long lines in the smaller towns and suburbs...that would be heavily advantaged to Scott Brown."

Dave Weigel of the Washington Independent, on the ground in Mass.: "Poll worker in South Boston (Ward 8) says turnout's about double what it was in the primary... Turnout at 25% so far in Boston Ward 3 precinct 7—Coakley turf."

Josh Kraushaar of Politico: "Sources say turnout shaping up to be at least 50 percent in MA SEN, approaching the 56 percent turnout in the last two MA midterm elections. Several Dem operatives report turnout 35 percent higher so far than their expected modeling -- prob. not a good sign for Coakley."

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