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Mapping Out the Path to Repeal

1:26 PM, Apr 14, 2010 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
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According to Sean Trende at Real Clear Politicsthis is how President Obama's approval ratings look on a state-by-state basis.  Trende writes, "For an idea of how the Democrats are faring in swing states, the map below illustrates a rough average of the President's approval in recent state polls. A dark red state has the President's net approval rating at negative 10 or less, while a dark blue state is positive ten or more."  (Polls apparently weren't available in eight mostly red states -- such as Idaho, South Carolina, and South Dakota -- which are depicted in white.)

Trende elaborates:

"Almost all of the Bush states are 10 points or more against the President now, while Florida and Ohio are close to -10. The President is underwater in all of the Mountain West states except for New Mexico, and badly so. If we extrapolate to the Congressional level, we can probably assume that in the average swing district, Democratic incumbents are probably running into serious headwinds.

"The President's weakness in these states reveals another problem for his party. Since he is weak in Republican areas and swing areas, and yet doesn't have horrible approval ratings overall, he must be very, very popular among his party's base. Some polls have his approval ratings among African Americans at 95%. Even in Massachusetts, Martha Coakley managed to win the First, Seventh and Eighth Districts, which are home to the state's liberals and minorities.

"The problem for the Democrats is that these voters are packed into a relatively few states....

"President Obama's policy choices to date are wreaking havoc on the brand that Democrats cultivated carefully over the past twenty years. Bill Clinton worked long and hard to make it so that voters could say 'fiscal conservative' and 'Democrat' in the same sentence, but voters are finding it difficult to say that again."

Not only does this map bode well for the GOP in November, but it would be hard to look at it and not think that the key piece in the plan to repeal Obamacare, defeat of President Obama, is a realistic possibility -- especially if the right candidate were to enter the race.

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