Morning Jay: Can Newt Gingrich Win the Center?
6:00 AM, Nov 23, 2011 • By JAY COST
Throughout this pre-primary season, I’ve argued that the number one priority for Republicans is to find a conservative who can articulate the party’s beliefs in a way that appeals to independent, middle-of-the-road voters. Now that Newt Gingrich has surged to the top of the polls, it is fair to ask whether he is such a candidate.
With Gingrich, the best approach is to look at the last time he was at the top of national politics, in the mid-1990s when he was speaker of the House. The data we have from that period suggests that Gingrich would have a hard time holding on to the political center of the country.
In the 1998 Almanac of American Politics, Michael Barone summed up Gingrich’s political career to date in these terms: “He had more success as an inside-the-House legislative leader than as an outside-the-House shaper of public opinion.”
This is an extremely insightful point – there are indeed two sides to the Gingrich story. The 104th Congress remains an important milestone in the history of American conservatism, in that it fought for welfare reform, tax cuts, and a balanced budget, and won reelection in 1996 based on this record. Much of the credit goes to Gingrich, who – unlike many of his fellow Republican House colleagues in the 1970s and 1980s – was never happy with life in the minority. He held fast to a view that for decades was simply “outrageous:” the House could tip Republican, and it could take a lead role in national reforms.
And yet, his approval numbers while he was in charge of the House were dreadful. Gallup found his net favorable rating in negative territory by the early spring of 1995 (33 percent approve to 47 percent disapprove, or a 14 point net negative), and at the end of 1995 his net negatives would exceed 25 points, where they would remain for the rest of his tenure.
By the time of the 1996 election, Gingrich had become a drag on the nationwide Republican brand. Consider the following chart, which tracks Gingrich’s favorable rating in the 1996 exit poll, by two metrics. First, it looks at his approval rating among all voters, and among only Bob Dole voters. Second, it looks at his approval rating nationwide and in Georgia.
These are very weak numbers indeed. Obviously, his 32 percent national favorable rating shows that only the core GOP base was behind him, but even then Gingrich was viewed favorably by just 61 percent of Dole voters nationwide. And in Georgia – his home state where people knew him best – he could not even pull in three quarters from Dole voters.
What accounts for this weakness? In the ’98 Almanac, Barone offered this thesis:
And as Fred Barnes points out in the latest issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD:
Both of these observations are spot on, and help explain why he fell so quickly after rising to the top of the heap after the 1994 midterm. And to this list we might add another item: political miscalculation when the stakes were high.