Morning Jay: Can Obama Win By Attacking the GOP?
6:00 AM, Nov 11, 2011 • By JAY COST
And note here that we are talking about the voters, who historically tend not to be as pro-Democratic, and thus not as partial to Obama, as the entire adult population. In fact, the exit poll in 2004, which had Bush's net approval at +7, showed him in better standing than almost all of the major media polls taken just prior to the election.
I recognize that the Obama campaign team needs to put out some sort of message about how it wins next year. I also recognize that the media is duty-bound to report on it, relatively uncritically. However, this is just not a viable strategy, at least not without a significant uptick in the president's own standing. If he is still as unpopular as he has basically been for the last sixteen months, he can’t win by running against his opposition. Barring the possibility that the GOP nominates a 21st century version of George McGovern, Obama wins if and only if a majority of voters think he’s doing a good job.