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Morning Jay: Delaware Fun Facts, House Polls, NY Rebound, and More!

6:30 AM, Sep 14, 2010 • By JAY COST
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3. Dem House PollsCourtesy of Swing State Project, we have a slew of DCCC polls:

KY-6: Chander (D-Inc) 52, Barr (R) 38

NM-2: Teague (D-Inc) 51, Pearce (R) 44

OR-5: Schrader (D-Inc) 42, Bruun (R) 29

PA-12: Critz (D-Inc) 48, Burns (R) 41

These results are basically in line with what we have seen from Democratic polling firms: the incumbent with a lead that (at best) barely exceeds 50 percent.  However, Schrader – a freshman who represents Salem and parts of the Portland suburbs – looks terribly weak considering the source. 

Courtesy of National Review's  Battle '10 blog is a poll from Bill Johnson, GOP challenger against Democrat Charlie Wilson in OH-6.

The Bill Johnson for Congress campaign today released the results of a recent Public Opinion Strategies poll that shows Johnson in a dead heat with his opponent, incumbent Democrat Charlie Wilson.

Wilson holds a narrow three-point advantage in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, 47- 44%. The two candidates are tied at 27% among definite supporters. Further, only 35% of respondents feel that Wilson deserves re-election, while 47% say it’s time for someone new.

These numbers are typical of most Republican polling this cycle, which generally show the GOP challengers slightly ahead of or even with their Democratic opponents.

4. GOP in a New York State of MindThe victory of Scott Brown confirmed what many of us have long known: news of the death of northeastern Republicanism was vastly overstated.  This brief article from the Wall Street Journal suggests a Republican rebound in upstate New York:

Currently, two of New York's 29 House members are Republicans. Yet pollsters and veteran in-state politicians see at least six House races where the GOP has a fair chance to win back seats—a sign of how quickly Democratic fortunes may be reversing after big gains in 2006 and 2008.

The New York Republican Party has long had its base in the upstate region, but Democrats have been pulling in upstate seats hand over fist for the last couple cycles.  Right now, however, Charlie Cook lists four upstate districts, plus Long Island’s NY-1 and Staten Island’s NY-13, as competitive.  Those are the six seats the WSJ is talking about.

5. A Great AdOne reason I suspect the Democratic financial advantage is going to be less helpful this year is because the GOP has the better argument, which it has not really had for two cycles. 

A great example comes from IA-3 where state senator Brad Zaun is challenging Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell.  The following is a low-tech, straightforward, highly effective ad from Zaun.  Republicans all across the country are going to be flooding the airwaves with this kind of material, and I think it will be very impactful (h/t RCP Video):

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