Morning Jay: Delaware Senate, Boren Cruising, Nevada Polls, and More!
6:30 AM, Sep 13, 2010 • By JAY COST
The most recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists projected unemployment at the end of 2011 standing at 8.6 percent. If that number holds, expect the Democrats to have a tough argument to make to the electorate. George Herbert Walker Bush knows that better than anybody else. The economy had officially come out of recession March, 1991, and actually was growing at a 4.2 percent rate in the third quarter of 1992, yet unemployment stood at 7.4 percent on Election Day, which gave Bill Clinton and the Democrats a decisive advantage in making their case.
An unemployment rate of higher than 7.5 percent should produce a competitive electoral contest – Obama can argue that the economy is heading in the right direction while his Republican opponent can argue that it is not moving nearly fast enough.
5. Harry Reid Hangs Tough. The Las Vegas Review Journal’s latest poll out of Nevada shows Harry Reid holding a two-point lead over Republican Sharron Angle in the battle for the United States Senate. Meanwhile, Reid’s son Rory is trailing badly in the race for governor, down a whopping 16 points against Brian Sandoval. The reputable firm Mason-Dixon conducted the LVRJ polls, and its Senate and governor numbers are consistent with recent polling from other firms.
Sharron Angle’s campaign has been problematic so far, and the markedly different positions between the elder and junior Reid help quantify the self-inflicted damage she has suffered. The good news for Republicans? Reid is still under 50 percent support, has a terrible favorable rating (just 41 percent) and a higher unfavorable rating than Angle (52 percent for Reid against 46 percent for Angle).