Morning Jay: Goodbye to the Clinton Majority, Those Lucky Dems, and More!
In years with high Republican enthusiasm – such as 1994 and 2004 – what we have seen is that the GOP and the Democrats pull even in terms of relative strength in the electorate. Both groups of partisans break heavily for their respective sides, and what that ultimately means is that independents decide the outcome. Right now, Gallup has President Obama at just 40 percent approval among independents, which is about the same percentage that voted Democratic in 1994.
Polls of registered voters are going to mask this phenomenon because of their over-sampling of Democrats. Registered voting polls make a lot of sense earlier in the cycle because it is unclear who is going to vote and who isn’t. But we’re now 40 days out from the midterm, and so from this point they should be taken with a grain of salt.