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Morning Jay: House Polls, Senate Battles, Full Dinner Pail, NV, CT, and More!

6:30 AM, Oct 7, 2010 • By JAY COST
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1. The Latest Sign of the Dem-Pocalypse.  Today’s sign of Democratic doom comes from the Penn Schoen Berland polling outfit, which is conducting a series of polls sponsored by The Hill and America’s Natural Gas Alliance (huh?). The first round of polling is of freshmen House Democrats, and the numbers are brutal:

The Hill’s writeup dutifully notes a “glimmer of light for Democrats; not one of the 12 Republican challengers has reached 50 percent,” which is a good point because in anti-incumbent years such as this, late breaking undecided voters are known to break heavily to the incumbent party.

Sarcasm aside (and I understand the need the media has to make it seem like a tight race), these numbers are just plain awful for the Democrats. These are moderately Republican to moderately Democratic districts, and the incumbent Democrats, who supposedly knew the Category 5 Hurricane was coming and built up their levies (and all the other appropriate “wave” metaphors) average less than 40 percent of the vote with four weeks to go

Surely, however, reinforcements from the DCCC are on the way, correct?  I mean, the base is fired up, contributions to the party have reached an all time high, and the pure political muscle of Organizing for America is going to come out and will these vulnerable Democrats to victory!


The DCCC has shaved the size of its ad reservations in 6 districts where Democrats are running behind their Republican challengers in polls. These include CO 04, where Rep. Betsy Markey has consistently trailed state Rep. Cory Gardner (R). Similarly, the DCCC has moved its ad reservations a week later in NM 02, where Rep. Harry Teague (D) is facing an uphill fight against former Rep. Steve Pearce (R).

In Rep. Chet Edwards's (D) TX 17, the DCCC reduced the size of its reservations for Oct. 19 to Oct. 25, scaling back 600 points. Edwards has trailed businessman Bill Flores (R) in most public polling, and this district gave John McCain 67% in '08….

Similarly, the DCCC has shaved the size of its reservations on behalf of Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) in FL 24 from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25…

Democrats have also made changes in a couple open seats in conservative territory that were previously held by Democrats. In IN 08, the seat vacated by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), the DCCC has cancelled its reservations from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25….The DCCC has also cancelled its reservations during the same week in KS 03, where nurse Stephene Moore (D) is trying to hold on to her husband's seat in congress against state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R)…

2. Dust Off Your History Books!  John Fund writes over at the Wall Street Journal:

Michael Barone, co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, says either of the Gallup turnout models would produce "a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928." Mr. Barone says the historical parallel might no longer be 1994, when the GOP gained 54 House seats, but instead 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 House seats in the middle of the economic downturn that engulfed Democratic President Grover Cleveland.

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