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Morning Jay: No Serious Democrat Will Challenge Obama

6:00 AM, Aug 4, 2011 • By JAY COST
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Fifth, he has the party establishment. No sane Democrat could possibly believe that replacing Obama with another nominee will improve the party’s prospects in November 2012. And Democratic officeholders who want to continue holding office know full well: The worse the party does at the top of the ticket, the worse it will do farther down (even state legislative elections are correlated with the presidential vote!). Self-interest, in other words, will make sure almost all of elected Democratic officialdom will get behind Obama. This means that Obama will control the superdelegates.

All of these advantages add up to the following conclusion: Barring some major scandal that seriously tarnishes him, President Obama will be the Democratic nominee in 2012.

Thus, no Democrat who actually wishes to occupy the Oval Office would dare challenge him. Any actual challenger who emerges will be on a quest to garner national attention or to raise some issue of personal importance. Such candidates (e.g. Pat Buchanan in 1992, Gary Bauer in 2000, and Al Sharpton in 2004) rarely amount to much more than historical footnotes.

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