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Morning Jay: Obama’s Reelection Strategy Is Riddled With Problems

6:00 AM, Nov 30, 2011 • By JAY COST
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Indeed, this economic slowdown has hit these upscale suburbanites square in the jaw. They tend not to be unemployed, but their home values are down almost 20 percent from the peak (and show no signs of rebounding) and they are still in the midst of a massive de-leveraging.

Unsurprisingly, Obama is doing very poorly with them at the moment:

            As a point of comparison, the president lost this group by only 4 points to John McCain in 2008. If the election were held today, he’d probably lose it by 20 points.

This suggests that Obama’s decision to kill the Keystone Pipeline isn’t going to help him with these voters, at least the non-activists among them. After all, it is a kind of indulgence to worry about the environment, one that these voters really can't afford these days – not when their wages are flat, their houses are underwater, the price of the kids’ college tuition is going up and away, and it costs $50 every week to fill up the Ford Explorer.

Obama can keep the core leftwing of this group – the environmentalists, feminists, and so on who have been diehard Democrats for generations – but these numbers show that he’s struggling with those moderates Clinton brought on board in the mid-1990s.

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All in all, I’d suggest that if the election were held today, and the GOP nominated a reasonably attractive candidate, Obama would pull far too few of any of these voters to win a second term. He needs a noticeable uptick in the state of the union to stand a chance, as right now his numbers are just too weak. Barring that and/or a fumble by the Republicans, I see no path to reelection for this president.

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