Morning Jay: Obama's Dime Store Sociology, Grijalva In Trouble, and New Polling Data!
6:30 AM, Oct 18, 2010 • By JAY COST
And yet the DCCC has dropped a negative ad in the district. That’s the kind of year this is.
3. NPR Poll. This poll has grabbed plenty of attention:
It squares pretty well with the generic ballot numbers we have been seeing. It’s important, however, not to take these numbers at face value. After all, we can’t know what this means for any particular district based on aggregate results. Personally, I think the generic ballot is a much more informative metric. It can't tell us about specific districts, either, but we can compare it to history and get a sense of what it means for seat switches this year.
4. Obama Voters Bailing? Another poll that has been making waves:
I’m not sure why this is such big news. These kinds of numbers are pretty typical when the macro forces are against an incumbent party as much as they are lined up against the Democrats this cycle.
Consider, for instance, this bit of data from the 2008 national exit polls:
Notice the percentage of people who claimed to back Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008. It’s 17%, just about where the Obama defection rate is right now, according to the AP. Similarly, in 2000 George W. Bush stole about 15% of the Clinton ’96 vote (while Gore stole just 7% of the Dole vote). Bill Clinton took 21% of the 1988 George H.W. Bush electorate in 1992, and Ronald Reagan took 29% of Carter’s 1976 vote in 1980.
There is no doubt that the Obama campaign drew new voters to the polls, but ultimately the election hinged largely on the swing vote. If McCain had kept that 17% of the old Bush vote in his coalition, he would have been elected president. Independents and soft-partisans put Obama into office in 2008, and they are gearing up to vote Republican here in 2010. That's why we call them swing voters!
5. Quotes for the Day.
"I want to warn you about something...Right now the same special interests who would profit from the other side's agenda - they're fighting back. The empire is striking back. To win this election, they are plowing ten's of millions of dollars into front groups. They are running misleading negative ads all across the country...This isn't just a threat to Democrats, this is a threat to our democracy!"