Morning Jay: Special “Good Vibrations” Edition
6:30 AM, Oct 29, 2010 • By JAY COST
November 2nd is going to be a great day for Republicans. You can feel the good vibrations coming through strong now.
1. Consider the Race Rankers. Larry Sabato says it’s bigger than 1994.
Nate Silver also says the GOP will win more seats than it did in 1994. He offers up a last ditch defense for Dems: a variant of the “They didn’t poll me!” argument, first offered by the fans of AuH2O.
Charlie Cook says that the storm is a comin’.
2. Consider the polls. I’ve discussed the generic ballot at length on this page, and will offer some final thoughts on it next week. But consider another set of polls – district polls. Cook notes:
Veteran analysts have suggested that 2010 is unlike anything they have seen before because there are just so many seats on the table for Republicans.
3. Consider the Map. In how many statewide races in the Midwest, Mountain West, or South do the Democrats have the edge? Just 4 out of 48 contests. These are: the governors' races in Arkansas, Colorado, and Minnesota, and the Senate race in West Virginia. However, in Colorado and Minnesota, if the Democrats win, it will be with less than 50% of the vote. Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Democrat Joe Manchin has a slight edge, but he’s running campaign ads in which he literally shoots the cap-and-trade bill.
4. Consider The Democrats' Epic Collapse in the Ohio Senate Race. Around Memorial Day of this year, Charlie Cook called the Ohio Senate race a toss-up. And why not? Ohio has long been the swingiest of swing states, and the Republicans were set to nominate Rob Portman, President George W. Bush’s director of Office of Management and Budget. Five months later, and where are we? Not only is the Democratic nominee, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, not going to win – he’s not even trying anymore.
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