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Morning Jay: Special “Hulk Angry! Hulk Smash!” Edition

6:30 AM, Nov 1, 2010 • By JAY COST
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Gallup’s final projection, released last night, is this:

Yeah, I know. I had to rub my eyes and look a second time. I could barely believe it.

A victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats, but I wouldn’t take that at face value. After all, there is a great deal of uncertainty because we are dealing with unprecedented results, which Gallup is quick to acknowledge. A Republican vote margin of 15 points would more than double the party’s 1994 victory and it is about double its 1946 victory. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1928 to find an election where the popular vote margin resembled anything close to what Gallup is predicting.  

Today, I’m going to dig through my spreadsheet on candidate fundraising, district partisanship, and House polling to put together my own estimate, which I will release tomorrow. 

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