Morning Jay: Special Prognostication Edition!
6:30 AM, Oct 15, 2010 • By JAY COST
We’re a little more than two weeks out from the election, and now is a good time to check in with electoral prognosticators to see what they think is going to happen.
1. Hotline On Call polled Beltway insiders on both sides and finds this result:
2. RealClearPolitics currently sees 184 seats going to the Democrats, 211 going to the Republicans, and another 40 as toss-ups. Allocate the remaining seats evenly, and you get a GOP pickup of 52 seats.
4. Over at Pollster, Steve Lombardo predicts the Democrats will lose something between 60 and 70 seats. He writes:
4. Larry Sabato – a professor of politics at the University of Virginia – still sees Republican pickups of 47 seats. He has offered that number since before Labor Day, and plans to “tweak” it closer to the election. He does note that, “If we were to do so today, we would expand the GOP gains by single-digits.”
5. Also at Sabato’s site, Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz develops a predictive model based upon the final Gallup generic ballot that predicts, if the current number holds, the GOP will pick up more than 68 seats.
6. Tom Davis, former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, thinks the GOP “will net 50 plus, and I think it’s more likely to go up than down.”
7. Stuart Rothenberg is on the more conservative end: “Likely Republican gain of 37-45 seats, with considerably larger gains in excess of 45 seats quite possible. “
8. Cook Political says: “For every isolated race in which a last minute scandal sinks a Republican...there are ten races in which Republicans are steadily closing in on Democratic leads...Overall, given the status of these Toss Up races and the length of the Lean Democratic column, Democrats' chances of losing at least 50 seats are now greater than their chances of holding losses under 45 seats.”
9. As for yours truly, I am still where I was a few weeks ago: the GOP slightly outperforms its 1994 haul. I called it 57 seats then, and I still think that is a reasonable number.
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