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Morning Jay: Special “Ultimate Predictions” Edition!

6:30 AM, Nov 2, 2010 • By JAY COST
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In the Senate, Democrats will win seats in Delaware and Maryland. Republicans will win seats in Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. West Virginia is a toss-up, although at this point the Democrats have the edge.

In the governor races, the GOP will win in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.  Democrats will win in Arkansas and Maryland. Florida is close, but my guess is that it goes Republican.

Here is how I see the House seats breaking down.

5. Regional Breakdown: The Midwest.  This is where the Democrats stand to do the worst today.  The Midwest has been swinging elections since the early 19th century, when it used to just be called “the West.” It swung the Democrats into power in 2006 and 2008, and now it will swing them out.

The Republicans will sweep the region in the Senate, winning races in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.   

The governor races will be almost as brutal for the Democrats. Republicans will win in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The only bright spot for the Democrats is Minnesota, where a three-way race should give them a victory with less than 50 percent of the vote. 

Here is how I see the House breaking down.

6. Regional Breakdown: The West.  The West will be the most diverse region in the country. 

In the Mountain West, the GOP will run roughshod over the Democrats, winning every Senate race (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah) and most governor races (Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming). That leaves only Colorado, where effective Republican Tom Tancredo has the momentum. My gut says he pulls it out narrowly.

In the Pacific West, the Democrats will generally hold the line, winning governor races in California, Oregon, and Hawaii. The GOP will hold the governorship in Alaska. Meanwhile, in the Senate, Ron Wyden will cruise to reelection in Oregon, a race the GOP might have turned into something winnable if it had not been so distracted by weak candidates in Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada. California and Washington remain toss-ups, with the Democrats having slight edges.  The Democrats will have an easy victory in Hawaii.  And in Alaska…your guess is as good as mine.

Here’s the House breakdown as I see it.

Now, stop reading the blogs and go vote!

Oh, one more thing.  Whatever you do today, ignore any and all leaked exit polls. They're put out there with an agenda, which usually does not include making conservatives feel better. And they're not the most accurate data points in the world. Just ask President John F. Kerry!

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