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Morning Jay: Obama's Nosebleed Seats Problem

6:00 AM, May 9, 2012 • By JAY COST
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Think of it this way: every young Obama ’08 voter who backs Romney in 2012 cuts the president’s margin by two votes; every young Obama ’08 voter who decides not to vote in 2012 cuts it by one.

Now, to be clear, I do not think the president has unique problems with either of these demographic groups. I think his relatively soft numbers and the one-quarter empty stadiums are rather species of his general dilemma this cycle: he is not as popular as he was in 2008 and currently his popularity is borderline at best to be reelected.

The real take-home point, then, is that he can’t count young voters and African Americans in the bag, at least not to the same extent as he had them in 2008. He will carry both groups overwhelmingly, for sure, but elections are won or lost on the margins, and that is where Obama has problems with these blocs.

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