Morning Jay: Without Independents, Obama Has No Chance of Victory

This mistake by the Democrats has given the GOP an opportunity, but to capitalize on it, the party must find a candidate who can articulate core Republican principles in a way that appeals to independents, and then after the 2012 election that leader must govern with an eye to maintaining the party’s support among this critical bloc. This is easier said than done: No Republican leader has managed to do this in the last 20 years, and George W. Bush’s 2004 victory was so narrow in large part because he won less than 50 percent of the independent vote.

As these maps indicate, independents hold the balance of power in American politics. Both parties have failed to win and hold them over the last decade or more, and the party that figures out how to do this will be the one to enjoy an enduring majority.