National Journal Poll: Half Would Vote Against Obama

Jay Cost wrote this morning that some of the most important polls to watch this early (and it's still very early) in the 2012 campaign are those which ask the question, "Does Barack Obama deserve Reelection?" In that strain, National Journal has a new poll out today of registered voters that, if accurate, doesn't bode well for Obama:

Fully half of registered voters say they would definitely or probably vote for a candidate other than President Obama if the presidential election were held today, according to a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll.

50 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would definitely or probably vote for someone else, while just 40 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for the president.

Just 22 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama, while 18 percent said they would probably vote for him. 35 percent would definitely vote for someone else while another 16 percent would probably vote for someone else.

There are plenty of problems with this poll on its face. First of all, registered voters are always less representative of actualy opinion than likely voters are. And as the Hotline report notes, it is still very early in the cycle. Nevertheless, if half of the voters are thinking they'll vote against Obama, that's a fairly high hurdle to jump. It's difficult to convince too many voters who have already decided to vote against you.