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N.C. Senate Poll: Tillis 45%, Hagan 40%

2:01 PM, Aug 14, 2014 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
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The latest poll from Rasmussen shows Republican Thom Tillis opening up a significant lead over Democratic senator Kay Hagan:

Republican challenger Thom Tillis has pushed slightly further ahead of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters shows Tillis earning 45% support to Hagan’s 40%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate in the race, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The two were virtually tied in early May, with Tillis posting a one-point lead. 

The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Tillis leading Hagan by just 1.3 points.

As Fred Barnes wrote earlier this year, winning North Carolina is the key to Republicans' controlling the Senate:

To win the Senate, Republicans must win North Carolina. While it’s mathematically possible to take the Senate without ousting Democratic senator Kay Hagan, the chances of that happening are close to zero. For Republicans, North Carolina is necessary. It’s the key to control of the Senate.

It’s number six on my list. That is, there are five states where capturing Democratic seats appears more likely—West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas. Then comes North Carolina. Assuming Republicans don’t lose any of their own seats, those six pickups would give Republicans a 51-49 majority. And with it, the political equation in Washington would change. Republicans would be on offense, President Obama and Harry Reid on defense.

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