Now Or Never For a Pence Presidential Run?
3:38 PM, Jan 21, 2011 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Indiana congressman Mike Pence has gotten a lot of buzz as a potential GOP presidential candidate who could appeal to both establishment Republicans and Tea Partiers--social conservatives and fiscal conservatives.
While Pence has a plausible path to the GOP nomination, and the presidency, it would be a long, hard slog. On the other hand, he could take the governorship of Indiana in a walk. Not an easy choice. But if Pence ever wants to run for president, it's hard to see how there will be a better moment than now.
If Pence decides to run for governor, and the 2012 presidential GOP candidate loses, he'd likely face a dazzling, crowded field in 2016 filled with the likes of Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, and Marco Rubio. And by then Pence will have reached his expiration date as a presidential candidate, according to "Rauch's Rule."
As Jonathan Rauch noted in a 2003 piece in National Journal, "With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president."
Pence was first elected to Congress in 2000, so he'd run against "Rauch's Rule" or the "Law of 14" in 2016. That's just one more thing he might want to consider in the next 10 days, as he makes his final decision.
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