Obama's Chances in 2012

Sean Trende, writing at Real Clear Politics, argues that "the results" of the 2012 presidential election "are far from foreordained." And though Trende is not predicting President Obama will necessarily lose his reelection bid, he puts the odds at "roughly 50-50, with perhaps more upside on the losing end." His article today is in response to conventional wisdom on the presidential election:

As of this writing, the Intrade futures markets give the Democrats a 62 percent chance of holding the White House in 2012, essentially unchanged from a peak of 63 percent a month ago. Washington conventional wisdom seems to agree. Politico's Roger Simon opined a few days agothat "I don't think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis." David Brooks similarly assertedrecently that "Obama is very likely to be re-elected."

Today, Trende takes on the following arguments: 

—Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents.

—Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.

—Argument 3: Obama is doing well in the polls.

Whole thing here.