Pence Won't Run for Senate

Indiana Republican congressman Mike Pence will announce today that he will not challenge Democratic senator Evan Bayh in 2010. "I am staying for two reasons," Pence will write in a letter to supporters, according to Red State's Erick Erickson. "First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010."

Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll showed Pence leading Bayh by 3 points. Pence may have been the strongest GOP candidate for the Indiana Senate race, but Bayh remains very much in danger of losing his seat. He didn't poll above 50% against any of his potential challengers. As Michael Barone writes:

A general rule in polling is that what an incumbent gets in a poll he gets in a general election. Everyone knows him; those not voting for him now are not likely to vote for him later.