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InsiderAdvantage Poll: Perry Far Ahead in Florida (Updated)

3:57 PM, Sep 15, 2011 • By MICHAEL WARREN
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According to a new InsiderAdvantage poll, Texas governor Rick Perry has a nine-point lead over his closest rival, Mitt Romney, in Florida. The poll finds that 29 percent of respondents would vote for Perry in a primary election, while 20 percent would vote for Romney. None of the other candidates received more than 10 percent of support, and a full 21 percent had "no opinion."

The crosstabs show a breakdown of the poll by age, race, and gender, providing some interesting information:

Perry does extremely well with young Republican voters, but his support begins to wane with older groups. Romney does better with voters 65 and over--perhaps an indication Romney's attacks on Perry's Social Security comments might be paying off. Perry also captures just under half of the Hispanics polled, though the sample size may be too small to mean anything. Perry polls much better in Florida with men than he does with women.

Florida, a large and early primary state, could play a significant role in choosing the Republican nominee.

Update: One caveat to this: Perry very well may be ahead in Florida, but it's worth noting that InsiderAdvantage was considered one of the least accurate polling outfits in the 2004 Democratic primaries. As Nate Silver wrote in 2010, "We identified seven InsiderAdvantage polls from the 2004 primary campaign, which we did not have in our database before. Results-wise, these polls were terrible, missing by 12.4 points on average."

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