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Poll: Obama Has Big Leads in Swing States

But are Democrats oversampled?

11:05 AM, Sep 26, 2012 • By MICHAEL WARREN
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President Barack Obama is far ahead of Mitt Romney in three important swing states, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama leads Romney by 12 points in Pennsylvania (54 percent to 42 percent), by 10 points in Ohio (53 percent to 43 percent), and by 9 points in Florida (53 percent to 44 percent). Obama also has an advantage over Romney in those states on many issues, including who would be best to handle the economy.

Here's more from Quinnipiac:

Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit. 

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:

Florida: Obama leads Romney 53 - 44 percent, compared to 49 - 46 percent August 23;

Ohio: Obama over Romney 53 - 43 percent, compared to 50 - 44 percent August 23;

Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 54 - 42 percent, unchanged from 53 - 42 percent August 1.

Likely voters say Obama can better handle the economy, the top issue listed by voters, 51 - 46 percent in Florida, 51 - 45 percent in Ohio and 51 - 45 percent in Pennsylvania. 

But as Jay Cost notes this morning, many polls may be oversampling Democrats relative to their actual turnout in November. Here are the partisan breakdowns for these latest polls: In Florida, Quinnipiac sampled 36 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans, and 33 percent independents; in Ohio, the sample was 35 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans, and 35 percent independents; and in Pennsylvania, the sample was 39 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republican, and 27 percent independent. 

Nationally, the RealClearPolitics average shows Obama with a 3.6-point lead over Romney, and the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows a tie between the candidates.

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