Polling Now Ranges from Romney +5 to Obama +5
12:00 AM, Nov 1, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
Mitt Romney and President Obama are now tied in the RealClearPolitics average of recent national polling, thanks in large part to the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll released Wednesday afternoon. That poll projects an 8-point advantage in turnout for Democrats over Republicans — one point more than the advantage that exit polling indicated the Democrats enjoyed in 2008 — and, as a result, it shows Obama up 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).
That’s a far cry from Gallup’s most recent polling, at the other end of the spectrum, which shows Romney up 5 points (51 to 46 percent). Gallup’s polling suggests that likely voters’ party affiliation has swung 11 points toward the GOP in relation to Gallup’s own 2008 party-affiliation polling, and 8 points toward the GOP in relation to 2008 exit polling, thereby giving Republicans a 1-point edge this time around. So Gallup is projecting a party-affiliation split that’s 9 points to the right of the split that’s being projected by the Congressional Connection Poll.
Well, at least no one can accuse all of the pollsters of being in lockstep.