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Polls: Many GOP Primary Voters Still Unsure

Perry sinks while Cain surges.

10:01 AM, Oct 11, 2011 • By MICHAEL WARREN
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Two new polls of Republicans and those who lean Republican show a sizable number of likely voters remain undecided on the 2012 presidential race.

Elephant Drawing GOP

In a Gallup survey conducted last week, the percentage of undecided respondents doubled to 20 percent, up from 10 percent in a September poll taken two weeks ago. Since Gallup began polling the GOP presidential candidates in May, the percentage of undecided voters has decreased each month, but undecided voters in October are higher than they were in July (18 percent), August (17 percent), and September (10 percent).

The poll finds that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has regained the lead from Texas governor Rick Perry, who fell from 31 percent in September to 15 percent this month. But Romney's numbers have also fallen, from 24 percent in September to 20 percent in October. Businessman Herman Cain has more than tripled his numbers in the last two weeks, jumping up to 18 percent to put him in a statistical tie with Romney. The remaining candidates all registered below 10 percent.

The poll of 1,064 Republicans and Republican-leaning voters was conducted between October 3 and October 7, with a 4 percent margin of error. Read more from the Gallup poll here.

A separate poll by Evolving Strategies (and conducted by YouGov) shows a similarly large percentage of undecideds among Republican and Republican-leading independents. The poll finds that 26 percent of members of that group were "not sure" which candidate they would vote for. Among the candidates, however, Cain leads with 28 percent, and Romney is in second at 19 percent and Perry in third at 12 percent.

YouGov, which conducts online (but scientific) polls, surveyed 1,005 adults, including 358 Republican or lean Republican adults, between October 7 and October 10. Poll reader Nate Silver rated the YouGov online poll above average last year in terms of credibility, and he has contrasted it favorably with the unscientific Zogby online poll.

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