The Blog

PPP National Poll: Cain 30, Romney 22, Gingrich 15, Perry 14

2:19 PM, Oct 12, 2011 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Widget tooltip
Single Page Print Larger Text Smaller Text Alerts

The Democratic but pretty reliable firm Public Policy Polling shows Herman Cain surging to first place: 

Cain is up 30-22 on Romney with Newt Gingrich sneaking past Rick Perry for 3rd place at 15% to Perry's 14% with Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%. [...]

There are indications within the poll that Cain's stay at the top could be short lived. Only 30% of his supporters are solidly committed to him with 70% saying they might still go on to support someone else. Those numbers aren't much better for Romney, who only has 31% of his supporters solidly committed, or Gingrich, who only has 34% solidly committed.  The strongest base of support among the Republican front runners- even if it's shrinking- is Perry's- 48% of his remaining backers say they'll definitely vote for him. Overall 70% of Republicans are either undecided right now or open to voting for someone different than who they're with now- that signals an extremely wide open race.

If Cain were to implode--like Bachmann and Perry before him--where would his supporters go? It seems they're more likely to go back to Perry or break for someone like Gingrich rather than support Romney:

If the race came down to a two way match between Cain and Romney, Cain leads 48-36.  Cain would pick up Bachmann, Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum's supporters.  Romney would get Huntsman and Paul's.  Cain would absolutely crush Perry in a head to head, 55-27. He would win over the supporters of every other candidate, including Romney's by a 56-24 margin.

And that's why Romney, whose poll numbers have been stuck in the 20s for months, is not the inevitable GOP presidential nominee.

Recent Blog Posts

The Weekly Standard Archives

Browse 20 Years of the Weekly Standard

Old covers