Rasmussen: West Virginia Senate Race Now a "Toss-Up"
12:24 PM, Sep 9, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
It seems to me that it's worth keeping an eye on the races for 15 Democratic Senate seats (check out the RealClearPolitics Senate map and ratings):
Three likely pick-ups for Republicans: Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana.
Three seats lean Republican: Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Colorado.
Six seats are toss-ups: Nevada, Illinois, California, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
One seat leans Democratic: Connecticut.
Two seats are likely Democratic holds: New York (Gillibrand) and Oregon.
After the New York primary, there's a chance that Kirsten Gillibrand's seat could be in play. There are competitive races for open Republican seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, and New Hampshire--but all of those races seem to lean Republican at the moment. And Alaska could become a toss-up if Lisa Murkowski goes ahead with her write-in campaign.
For Republicans to win a majority (51 seats) in the Senate, they'll need to make a net gain of 10 seats. The left-leaning statistician and blogger Nate Silver writes that his model shows Republicans have a 25 percent chance of doing this.