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Recovery Fini?

3:21 PM, Aug 18, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
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Writing in The Week, James Pethokoukis asks the troubling question: “Is the U.S. economic recovery almost over — already?”

The answer to this question is, as always: Who knows?  But as Pethokoukis writes:

If history is any guide, we're overdue for another recession. The average length of a post-WWII upturn after a downturn is 58 months. The current recovery, which began in July 2009, has been plugging along for 62 months. But because this recovery has been so weak, even a mild downturn, like the one after the internet stock bubble popped, could conceivably push the jobless rate back over 8 percent.

It hasn’t been much or a recovery – so anemic that half the country doest believe it ever happened – but that does not mean that we won’t miss it when it ends.  

As it soon might.

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