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Schilling v. Hare

Long Shot: Can the GOP win an Illinois congressional seat that's been held by Democrats for over two decades?

5:54 PM, Jul 23, 2010 • By PEYTON R. MILLER
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There are other good omens for the Schilling campaign. The last time the district’s incumbent congressman lost a bid for reelection was in 1982, also in the midst of a recession (though that one was less severe than the current one).  And November will be Hare’s first real electoral test.  He easily triumphed in the 2006 general election as his predecessor’s handpicked candidate, and ran without opposition in 2008.

Most significantly, a Magellan Strategies poll conducted last week indicates that only 24 percent of the district believes Phil Hare deserves to be reelected, while 50 percent think it's time to "give someone else a chance." A lot of voters seem to think Bobby Schilling is that "someone else." The same poll reveals that if the election were held today, 45 percent would support the insurgent Republican, and only 32 percent would vote to reelect Phil Hare. Assuming Schilling can convince enough undecided voters, Nancy Pelosi may control one fewer district come January.

Peyton R. Miller is the editor of the Harvard Salient and a Student Free Press Association intern at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.

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