Scott Brown Down 15 or Up 1?
Hot or cold?
3:45 PM, Jan 10, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
After last night's shock poll showed Brown up 1 point (i.e. a statistical tie), we have a Boston Globe poll that shows Brown is trailing Democrat Martha Coakley by 15 points. But the Globe reports that "Brown matches Coakley - both were at 47 percent - among the roughly 1 in 4 respondents who said they were 'extremely interested' in the race." Pollsters agree that intensity matters a lot in low turnout special elections, so even if the Globe poll got a decent sample, it still shows the race at probably a six or seven point spread.
Under a Massachusetts mailbox is a snow bank for Scott Brown.
Update: At Hot Air, Karl takes an in-depth look at the discrepancies.