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Trust Us; We Know How to Make Projections

2:21 PM, Mar 4, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
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The administration has produced a budget that includes various predictions not least of which concerns GDP growth. The White House, as Jeffry Bartash of Marketwatch reports, is looking for sunny days ahead and:

... expects the economy to expand at a 3.1% annual pace this year, compared to a mediocre 1.9% increase last year, according to budget documents released Tuesday. If the forecast is on target, it would mark the first time the U.S. has grown 3% or more in nine years.

Having been in power for a while now, the administration has a track record when it comes to estimates of this sort.  One that does not inspire confidence.

The Obama administration, like the Fed, has consistently overestimated growth since the end of the recession in mid-2009. The White House, for example, predicted early last year that the economy would expand by 3% in 2013 while the Fed expected the U.S. to grow from 2.3% to 3.0%. 

The number, as mentioned, came it at 1.9 percent.

And, of course, there was the famous graph used to sell the stimulus, showing that with its passage, unemployment would be held to under 8 percent.  

We all know how that worked out.

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