On Ukraine, America Has Good Options
1:02 PM, Mar 4, 2014 • By SETH CROPSEY
So it is very important that President Obama measure his words to what he is actually willing to do. Empty threats are worse than silence. If he has not already, the president would do well to forget the “reset” with Russia and concentrate on Putin’s economic vulnerability. The economic sanctions that Secretary of State Kerry has noted—dismissal from the G-8, a freeze on Russian assets in Western banks, bans on visas for Russians—all make sense. They would pressure Putin’s base, Russia’s oligarchs. The Obama administration’s preference for acting together with other nations would be especially useful here. The EU is an immense market for Russia. European cooperation on economic sanctions would be powerful encouragement for Putin to reconsider. Longer term measures that deserve consideration include significant financial assistance to help wean Europe off its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. In the past few years, large natural gas deposits have been discovered off the Israeli and Cypriot coasts. If these hydrocarbons can be extracted and transported safely north, Europe’s dependence on Russian energy will decrease. Were the U.S. to provide security in the form of a naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean—we have none now—neither Israel nor Cyprus would be forced to consider exchanging a portion of their natural gas for the security that Russia’s small but growing Eastern Mediterranean fleet might provide. Redoubling efforts to increase Libya’s oil output, which is currently a tenth of what it was under Qaddafi, might also inject some needed stiffness in the European spine—as would security guarantees for Algerian oil extraction facilities. European states that rely on imported Russian hydrocarbons would also benefit substantially if the U.S.
were to lift regulations that inhibit sale of abundant and—compared to Russia—relatively cheap American liquefied natural gas to states with which we do not have free trade agreements. Alternative sources of energy would hit Putin’s political base where it lives, in the wallet, and drain his political support.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine also raises the question of whether it is prudent for the Obama administration to proceed with its plan to cut the U.S. Army by 50,000 troops. The invasion is a reminder that surprises happen in surprising places, and quickly. The administration’s justification for cutting the army had been that significant uses of land forces are unlikely in the foreseeable future. Neither the U.S. nor the EU is likely to send ground troops to defend Ukraine from invasion. But the prospect that Russia could invade the Baltic states or other NATO member states in the region is far more realistic today than it was a week ago. NATO’s Article 5 commits each signatory to consider an armed attack against one state to be an armed attack against all states. It has been invoked once, by the U.S. following 911. No one wants to see it invoked a second time. An administration reversal on cutting the Army with an accompanying explanation of concern about continued Russian aggression would send a useful message to Moscow. Backing it up by repositioning U.S. forces to those NATO states that border Ukraine and are willing to accept a U.S. ground presence until Russia withdraws its troops from the Crimea would also demonstrate resolve. American and EU security assistance would strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend its sovereignty against likely future Russian aggression.
Since the Russian invasion there’s been some handwringing in the West about the prospect of a renewed cold war with Russia. This is understandable. But a cold war is much to be preferred to a hot one. And this is where we are headed if Putin discovers that there is no penalty for aggression.
Seth Cropsey is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. He served as a naval officer from 1985 to 2004 and as deputy undersecretary of the Navy in the Reagan and George H. W. Bush administrations. He is author of Mayday: The Decline of American Naval Supremacy, whose paperback edition Overlook Duckworth Press will publish this spring.
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