GEORGE W. BUSH is a September 12 person. John Kerry is a September 10 person. The difference is real. A September 12 person was traumatized by the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11, 2001. A September 12 person believes the world we thought existed before the attacks doesn't exist anymore. A September 12 person is convinced the world has fundamentally changed. A September 12 person favors a full-scale war on terrorism, including the use of military force for regime change in Iraq.
In contrast, a September 10 person was outraged by the attacks but not traumatized. A September 10 person thinks the world still exists as we perceived it before the attacks and thus hasn't fundamentally changed. A September 10 person regards the fight against radical Islamic terrorism as chiefly a matter of law enforcement and intelligence. Full-blown military engagement is not required.
The difference between the two types is significant politically as well as substantively. If September 11 and the war on terror are not salient issues in the campaign, Kerry benefits. To the extent they are, Bush gains. At the moment, Kerry has the upper hand. In the latest Gallup poll, terrorism is the fourth biggest worry of voters, trailing the economy, jobs, and anxiety over Iraq. And when voters in exit polls in Democratic primaries this year are asked which of six problems facing America is most important, it usually comes in sixth.
Absent an event that transforms terrorism into the paramount issue
again, it will be up to Bush's campaign and the president himself to do so. Bush has already begun, devoting half his State of the Union address last month to terrorism and Iraq. In a speech last week in Charleston, South Carolina, he insisted September 11 "was a lesson for America, a lesson I will never forget and a lesson this nation must never forget....I will not stand by and hope for the best while dangers gather," notably in Iraq. Republican strategists are confident September 11 and the war against terrorists can be rejuvenated as a major focus in the campaign. Democrats doubt it.
I've come up with five criteria for distinguishing between a September 10 person and a September 12 person. Kerry, the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination, and Bush differ on all five.
The first is how seriously one views the terrorist threat. Kerry believes it's been exaggerated. At a debate in South Carolina in January, he said there's "a long list of clear, misleading exaggeration" by the Bush administration. Bush, however, believes terrorism dwarfs any other threat or problem facing the country. Bush said in his State of the Union address that defending America against terrorism is "our greatest responsibility." It's "tempting to believe that the danger is behind us . . . [but] the terrorists continue to plot against America and the civilized world."
The second criterion is the war in Iraq. A September 10 person believes the war is wrong, at least in the way Bush has carried it out. Kerry says it has detracted from what he calls "the real war on terrorism," which would concentrate on capturing Osama bin Laden. By invading Iraq without the approval of the United Nations and more allies, Bush "is not conducting the war on terror in a way that is the most effective way," Kerry said while campaigning in New Hampshire. The president, naturally, defends his decision to invade Iraq. The liberation of Iraq "was an act of justice [that] removed an enemy of this country and made America more secure," Bush said in Charleston.
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