Small groups, gathered in meeting rooms scattered around the world and focused on a single issue, can affect the way we live, at least now and perhaps for a long time. Consider only this week’s conclaves.

Here in Washington, the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policy gurus met and decided to keep interest rates low until unemployment drops, even though they agreed that the economy is already improving. Meanwhile, meeting in committee rooms and in the corridors of power, Congress agreed to give the White House what its economists and the president, meeting in the Oval Office, demanded: more stimulus spending. It is true that there is considerable excess capacity in the economy, as the deflation-worriers continually point out. But anyone who believes that the meetings at the Fed, in congress, and in the White House are not laying the ground for future inflation carries a heavy burden of proof.

If the first day's output is any indication, Kausfiles fans can look forward to much more prolific blogging thanks to Mickey Kaus's decision to challenge Barbara Boxer in California's Democratic primary.

Democrats waste time -- don't want to talk health care -- on the House floor: 

Rep. Keith Ellison: "The fact is, we're honoring a great American novelist, but we have to divert that important conversation…the Republican caucus wants to go toe-to-toe on health care."

From Greg Sargent:

Another big get for Dems: Rep Brad Ellsworth, a former Yes vote who shared the concerns of the Stupak dozen and was intensely wooed by both sides, will vote Yes on the Senate bill, his spokesman confirms to me.

“He’s a Yes,” Jonathan Kott, communications director for Ellsworth, just said by phone. “He will vote in favor of health care reform.”

A press release detailing his rationale is forthcoming from his office.

This is a blow to the Stupak coalition. Will he bring others along?

Ellsworth just sealed the Democratic Senate nomination as well as his defeat in the general election.

Update: Stupak's office sent out an email saying he will hold a press conference with "other pro-life" members at 11:00a.m. to discuss the health care bill. Maybe all the pro-life Democrats cut a deal?

Allen Boyd of Florida, a Blue Dog facing a primary challenge from an Obamacare supporter, will flip his vote from "no" to "yes." He is the fifth representative to flip in Pelosi's favor. Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania will remain a "no."

The health care debate is beginning to resemble trench warfare. You have two camps -- the Yeses and the Nos. They spend most of their time launching artillery attacks on the opposing position. Every so often, though, a soldier traverses No Man's Land as he rushes to join the other side.

So far four Nos have joined the Yeses. But there is a larger, much more undefined, group of Yeses slowly crawling across the barren wasteland toward the No trench.

Fox says Pelosi is one or two votes away from victory. Don't believe it. Jeffrey H. Anderson puts the count at 203-214 and writes: "Don't forget the other wavering representatives, all of whom have yet to cast their votes. Let's make this a triumph of American democracy. Let's make Sunday a day when — at long last — the will of the people, expressed by their representatives, resounds victoriously."

On Sunday the cannons cease. And we find out who's left standing on either side.

A friend of TWS writes:

For those Democrats for whom the right to life is more than just a political calculation:

Everything is going according to plan.  Well, almost everything.

Buried in Vol. 2 (of 3) of the Air Force’s FY 2011 R&D budget (the entire budget encompasses 33 documents, some of them are more than 1,000 pages long) is an item referring to the “reliable replacement warhead.”  This is the controversial Bush administration proposal (once, and perhaps still, supported by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates) to design a less complex nuclear warhead that is less prone to decay and dysfunction over time.  This is important because every weapon in our current arsenal is at least 20 years old (and some are much older) and many of them are incredibly complex and thus, potentially, don’t work any more—but we don’t know it.  Former nuclear weapons designer Thomas Reed analogizes a nuclear weapon to highly complex sports car: You can’t leave a Ferrari in the garage for 20 years, and then decide one day you want to take it for a spin, and count on it starting just like that.

No matter how this weekend's vote turns out, we're going to need to take a break from health care reform. Like government spending, health care has crowded out the market for political discussion. Glance at the news, and you would have no way of knowing that other things are happening.

The votes of House Democrats on Sunday will largely determine the votes of independents in November.  Individual members of Congress who vote “no” on the proposed health care overhaul will strike an immediate chord of respect with their constituents, establish an instant reputation for fiscal prudence and independent thinking, and gain the appreciation of voters for listening to them.  Those who vote “yes” will invite the disdain of voters across the entire political spectrum, save the far left.

The whole House Democratic Caucus is headed to the White House for a face-to-face with the man himself this weekend:

Update: Here is the Democrat denial on this memo, and the Politico withdrawal notice. Let's hope someone wasn't freelancing fake memos around the Hill. Or worse, had some direction to do so. It would be ever so unhelpful if, in highlighting Dems' budget tricks, Republicans get caught in a ridiculous trick of their own. No named Democrats or aides aren't denying the memo yet. My guess is folks on both sides are less sure where it came from than the original report suggested, and they're scrambling to figure it out now. Will update when I hear more.

Anyone following health care and its attendant budget gimmickry knows that something called the "doc fix" was removed from the health-care bill last year because its price tag—between $200 and $400 billion— shattered Democrats' claims of deficit reduction and put the total CBO score over $1 trillion, which was not deemed politically palatable.

John Boccieri becomes the fourth Democrat who voted against the health care bill in November to flip his vote to "yes". He joins Betsy Markey, Bart Gordon, and Dennis Kucinich. I expect Scott Murphy of New York to become the fifth soon. Other potential flippers from "no" to "yes" include Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Brian Baird (Wash.), Jim Matheson (Utah), and Jason Altmire (Pa.).

Today President Obama traveled to George Mason University in northern Virginia for a pre-vote health care reform rally. You can read his remarks here. If you're too busy to click on the link, don't worry. You've heard them before.

Sen. Tom Coburn, whose cranky floor speeches and Democrats-may-care attitude have charmed conservatives for years, laid down the gauntlet yesterday, telling Democrats that their special deals for health-care votes would be revealed and publicized when he found them.

Now, Darrell Issa, according to The Hill, may start a probe on "special deals" in the health-care bill. Issa is ranking member on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Rep. John Boccieri announced he's flipping to Yes today. Let's hope he's enjoyed his time in Washington -- it's probably going to end pretty soon! Boccieri, a freshman, is the first Democratic representative his district has elected since the 1950s. The district voted for McCain. Better visit all the monuments while you can, congressman.

Boccieri's decision brings the total of Democrats who have flipped from No to Yes to four. The others include Reps. Kucinich of Ohio, Markey of Colorado, and Gordon of Tennessee. A Fox News headline says the Democrats are one vote away from passing the Senate bill with fixes, but that doesn't seem right. Firedoglake has the bill at 204-211.

Nancy Pelosi and Louise Slaughter have come up with a parliamentary maneuver -- "deem and pass" -- reeking of evasiveness and trickery that Democratic members are going to have to embrace. But it gets better! The point of "deem and pass" is to allow representatives to vote directly only on the reconciliation "fixes" rather than on the Senate health care bill (which will be deemed to be passed if reconciliation passes). But the reconciliation "fixes" make the Senate bill even more politically unattractive.

Here's what Democrats will be asked to vote for Sunday (thanks to Keith Hennessey for his useful list):

* Additional tax increases, on top of the ones in the Senate bill. The reconciliation bill raises the Medicare payroll tax by 0.9% to a combined employer-employee 3.8% for individuals with income over $200K and couples over $250K, and, beginning in 2013, creates a new 3.8% tax on some capital income from interest, dividends, annuities, royalties, and rents for those individuals and families.

* Even deeper cuts to Medicare Advantage, which will mean fewer and less attractive Medicare Advantage plans available to seniors.

“Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Friday about the state of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, demanding that Israel take immediate steps to show it is interested in renewing efforts to achieve a Middle East peace agreement.

So, let’s get this straight: On a visit to Israel by Vice President Biden, a lower-level, Israeli government agency announces its intent to build more housing units in East Jerusalem and the Obama administration goes nuclear, condemning the announcement as though it was a violation of some sacred agreement between the two countries—which of course it wasn’t.  The Israeli government, in turn, apologizes for the timing of the announcement but is told that this will not be enough. Israel now must, according to the administration, “prove” it wants peace.

Rehashing their lobby for a proposed abortion compromise in the U.S. Senate version of Obamacare in December, liberal Catholics and Evangelicals are now urging the U.S. House of Representatives to pass the Senate version of the bill. 

If there are any wavering pro-life Democrats in this late hour who need to be persuaded about how awful the Senate health care bill is, they should read two memos that make it clear how the Senate bill would allow community health care centers to directly fund abortions with federal money. The first memo (download it here) is by the pro-life secretariat at the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, an organization that would support the health care plan if the bill didn't fund abortions with tax dollars. The other memo is by the National Right to Life Committee.

Alexi Giannoulias is no stranger to controversial business relationships: As chief loan officer at his family’s Broadway Bank, the Illinois Democrat running for President Obama’s old U.S. Senate seat authorized loans to convicted organized crime leaders like Michael “Jaws” Giorango (a pimp and bookmaker) and Demitri Stavropoulos (an illegal gambling operator). Giannoulias also serviced loans for convicted felon Tony Rezko.

Fred Barnes: The Health-Care Wars Are Only Beginning. 

Michael Barone: "The House voted this afternoon by a 222-203 margin to pass the 'Slaughter solution' rule authorizing a single vote on the Senate health care bill which the House leadership wants to send to the president for signature plus the reconciliation health measure the House leadership wants to send to the Senate."

The CBO’s most recent analysis is out, and it’s not likely to convince wavering House Democrats to jump to the Obamacare side of the fence.  Even the Democrats are granting that the latest version of their proposed health care overhaul would cost $69 billion more than the previous version.  According to the CBO, this version would siphon even more money out of Medicare, make even further cuts to Medicare Advantage, and levy even higher taxes and fines on the American people.

E.J. Dionne is pretty excited that NETWORK, an organization of Catholic nuns, supports the Senate health care bill and says it doesn't use federal dollars to pay for abortions. That claim isn't true (more on that soon), but the endorsement is supposed to give Democrats cover to vote for the bill.